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Global Trends 2015:
A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts

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NIC 2000-02, December 2000

This paper was approved for publication by the National Foreign Intelligence Board under the authority of the Director of Central Intelligence.

Prepared under the direction of the National Intelligence Council.

Letter from the Director of Central Intelligence
Letter from the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council

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Note on Process

In undertaking this comprehensive analysis, the NIC worked actively with a range of nongovernmental institutions and experts. We began the analysis with two workshops focusing on drivers and alternative futures, as the appendix describes. Subsequently, numerous specialists from academia and the private sector contributed to every aspect of the study, from demographics to developments in science and technology, from the global arms market to implications for the United States. Many of the judgments in this paper derive from our efforts to distill the diverse views expressed at these conferences or related workshops. Major conferences cosponsored by the NIC with other government and private centers in support of Global Trends 2015 included:

· Foreign Reactions to the Revolution in Military Affairs (Georgetown University).

· Evolution of the Nation-State (University of Maryland).

· Trends in Democratization (CIA and academic experts).

· American Economic Power (Industry & Trade Strategies, San Francisco, CA).

· Transformation of Defense Industries (International Institute for Strategic Studies, London, UK).

· Alternative Futures in War and Conflict (Defense Intelligence Agency and Naval War College, Newport, RI, and CIA).

· Out of the Box and Into the Future: A Dialogue Between Warfighters and Scientists on Far Future Warfare (Potomac Institute, Arlington, VA).

· Future Threat Technologies Symposium (MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA).

· The Global Course of the Information Revolution: Technological Trends (RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA).

· The Global Course of the Information Revolution: Political, Economic, and Social Consequences (RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA).

· The Middle East: The Media, Information Technology, and the Internet (The National Defense University, Fort McNair, Washington, DC).

· Global Migration Trends and Their Implications for the United States (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC).

· Alternative Global Futures: 2000-2015 (Department of State/Bureau of Intelligence and Research and CIA's Global Futures Project).

In October 2000, the draft report was discussed with outside experts, including Richard Cooper and Joseph Nye (Harvard University), Richard Haass (Brookings Institution), James Steinberg (Markle Foundation), and Jessica Mathews (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace). Their comments and suggestions are incorporated in the report. Daniel Yergin (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) reviewed and commented on the final draft.

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Contents

Note on Process
Overview
The Drivers and Trends
Key Uncertainties: Technology Will Alter Outcomes
Key Challenges to Governance: People Will Decide
Discussion
Population Trends
	Divergent Aging Patterns
	Movement of People
	Health
	Natural Resources and Environment
	Food
	Water
	Energy
	Environment
Science and Technology
	Information Technology
	Biotechnology
	Other Technologies
The Global Economy
	Dynamism and Growth
	Unequal Growth Prospects and Distribution
	Economic Crises and Resilience
National and International Governance
	Nonstate Actors
	Criminal Organizations and Networkss